This shows how to find entry positions after a
fine stock drops a lot in a short time (picture
below).
1, 2) A 20+% drop in price in a month.
ACI is a fine company, so this is an excellent time to look
for some quick gains while the stock recovers. Notice how the
price dives sharply below the 20 MA. Relax and wait for the price to
come back to that 20 MA. The -DI (red line) goes far above
the +DI (green line) (of the DMI
/ ADX indicator), confirming the steep down trend.
3) Price formed a base, and is making a new minor
low. This is not a good time to enter a trade with confidence.
Stochastics and MACD are too high and of no help. The blue
ADX line of the DMI indicator is still too high, which indicates the
down trend is not over. The -DI and +DI lines have not yet
crossed over once. The minor low occurs while the down trend
is still in place, so not a good time to trade. Notice you
would have gotten a nice gain IF you had entered a trade, which says
that the stock is eager to recover from the 20% previous drop.
4) Price makes a new minor low. This
time the indicators look better, and this is a good time to enter a
short term trade with high probabilities of success.
Stochastics
is low, with
fast stochastics crossing over slow stochastics. MACD is
basing around the zero line. The +DI and -DI lines have been
hugging each other, signaling hesitation. MA's are squeezed
(see
brown Squeezed
MA indicator line) indicating the trend will change.
5) After all the excitement of several quick jumps
in
price, the stock made a base again for a month or so and then suddenly
broke out. This is a good looking breakout with a high
probability of further increases in price. Great breakout
volume.
The MA's were nicely squeezed. The stochastics
crossed over
at a low point. The MACD turned the corner around the zero
line.
Nice cross-over of the +DI and -DI lines. Look closely at the
blue ADX line of the DMI indicator. It has been steadily
declining for more than 2 months, and is coming up from a deep low.
This shows that the previous trend totally lost steam, and
it's
time to start a new trend, in this case an up trend.
Everybody on
board!